Boing Boing: Geographers calculated 81% odds Osama was in Abbottabad with “island biogeography” theory
In 2009, UCLA ecosystem geographers authored a paper predicting the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden. Using probability models they otherwise apply for studying, say, endangered birds, they calculated an 80.9% chance that the al Qaeda boss was in Abbottabad, Pakistan– where he was killed last night. They also correctly predicted bin Laden was living in a city, not a remote village or rural cave as widely presumed.
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